Allan Hsiao

I work on questions in environmental and development economics using tools from empirical industrial organization and international trade. [ CV ]

Working papers

Food Policy in a Warming World (with Jacob Moscona and Karthik Sastry)

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This paper studies the interaction between climate change and agricultural policy. We construct a new global dataset of agricultural policy, trade, production, and extreme heat exposure by country and crop from 1980 to 2011. We find that extreme heat shocks to domestic production lead to consumer assistance, particularly in election years when politicians may prioritize redistribution over revenue. Extreme heat shocks to import partners lead to producer assistance, implying that foreign policy responses may partially offset, rather than amplify, domestic policy responses. Endogenizing trade policy increases end-of-century climate damages by 14%.

Coordination and Commitment in International Climate Action: Evidence from Palm Oil

Revise and resubmit, Econometrica

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Weak environmental regulation has global consequences. When domestic regulation fails, the international community can target emitters with trade policy. I develop a dynamic empirical framework for evaluating trade policy as a substitute for domestic regulation, and I apply it to the market for palm oil, a major driver of deforestation and global emissions. Relative to business as usual, a domestic production tax of 50% reduces emissions by 7.5 Gt from 1988 to 2016, while coordinated, committed import tariffs of similar magnitude can achieve 5.4 Gt. The marginal abatement cost of import tariffs is as low as $15 per ton, even accounting for compensating transfers that recognize welfare losses for Indonesia and Malaysia.

Sea Level Rise and Urban Adaptation in Jakarta

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Sea level rise poses an existential threat to Jakarta, which faces frequent and worsening flooding. The government has responded with a proposed sea wall. In this setting, I study how government intervention complicates long-run adaptation by creating coastal moral hazard. I quantify this force with a dynamic spatial model of urban development and flooding. I show that moral hazard generates coastal lock-in by delaying inland migration, and I evaluate policies for reducing this friction.

Democratization and Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Healthcare in Indonesia

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Does electoral accountability discipline public spending? After the fall of Suharto, Indonesia held local elections for the first time in decades. I use a dynamic discrete choice framework to study how democratization affected the spatial allocation of public investment in healthcare infrastructure. On one hand, democratization limits distortions from Suharto-era biases toward certain areas, such as those within the patronage network. On the other hand, spillover effects are less internalized as districts become more focused on their own constituents. The first effect dominates, and democratization decreases misallocation overall.

Educational Investment in Spatial Equilibrium: Evidence from Indonesia

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This paper quantifies the long-run aggregate and distributional effects of Indonesia's Sekolah Dasar INPRES program, one of the largest school construction programs in history. I do so with a spatial equilibrium model in which students invest in education, then migrate for employment after graduation. I find that the program increased aggregate output by 8%, with large gains for rural students but small gains for rural regions. Labor market integration magnifies each effect, as education and migration are complements: access to high urban wages raises the returns to education, but also encourages students to leave rural regions behind.

Papers

Sea Level Rise and Urban Inequality

AEA Papers and Proceedings 2024

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Sea level rise threatens coastal cities around the world. Will it exacerbate inequality in these already unequal places? The rich may adapt by moving to higher ground, bidding up prices and pushing the poor elsewhere. I study the distributional consequences of this spatial sorting with a simple quantitative model and granular data from Jakarta, a flood-prone megacity of 32 million. I find that sea level rise will double inequality in flood exposure.

Resources

Survey: Sea Level Rise (with Clare Balboni)

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Sea level rise threatens one billion people by 2050. We survey the literature on coastal damages, adaptation, and policy.

Survey: Tropical Deforestation (with Robin Burgess)

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Tropical deforestation is a major driver of global emissions. We survey the literature and discuss next steps for researchers and policymakers.

Data: Historical Urban Development in Jakarta (1887-1945)

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I digitize Dutch colonial maps of Jakarta to measure the evolution of built-up land from 1887 to 1945.